Upstream Ag Professional - July 20th 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Welcome to the 102nd Edition of Upstream Ag Professional

Index:

  1. How Will Ag Technology Impact the Growth of Biologicals?

  2. AgVend Launches Loyalty & Rewards Program Builder

    • CHS Capital and AgVend expand connection to deliver digital financing solutions

  3. Open Source FMIS: Can it Work?

  4. Q2 2025 AgTech Venture Capital Investment and Exit Round Up

  5. Why crypto giant Tether bought a South American farming company

  6. Does AgTech Have a Terminology Problem?

  7. SeedLLM and What Comes Next?

  8. Apple Vision Pro for Agriculture

  9. 10 Insights for Agribusiness Leaders from Mary Meeker’s Artificial Intelligence Report

  10. High Agency

  11. Other Interesting Ag Articles (11 this week)

Thank you for being an Upstream Ag Professional member!

This week’s audio edition can be found here and covers the following:

  1. Companies vs. Tech

  2. AgVend Launches Loyalty & Rewards Program Builder + CHS Capital and AgVend expand connection to deliver digital financing solutions

  3. It's time to "Open Up" around FMIS

  4. Q2 2025 AgTech Venture Capital Investment and Exit Round Up

  5. Does AgTech Have a Terminology Problem?

Key Takeaway

  • The growth of biologicals and value-added fertilizers (VAFs) will be driven by the convergence of several technologies, including genetic engineering, predictive analytics, soil sensors, and precision application. This integration will improve product performance and ROI, rather than simply increasing the volume of products applied.

This week I read How Will Ag Technology Impact the Growth of Biologicals? and there are several great thoughts.

I wanted to add some additional comments around where the convergence of technology is likely to influence adoption and utilization of biologicals.

I think it’s worth calling out — technology is only one component.

It’s not the technology alone. It’s the companies that make the difference. People solve problems with technology. Teams find ways to elegantly change human behavior. Humans identify how to apply technology effectively.

Peter Thiel has touched on that frequent misunderstanding— teams, not technology are the compelling aspects and with that in mind I don’t want to only talk about the technologies, but what companies are out there as well.

Index

  1. Genetic Engineering with VAFs and the Genome

  2. Predictive Technology Influencing Timing and Targeting

  3. Soil Sensors and Closing the Feedback Loop

  4. Precision Application and Autonomy

  5. Formulation Technology

  6. Fermentation and Development Technology

  7. Final Thoughts

The future of biologicals (biostimulant and biocontrol) and value-added fertilizers (VAFs) is not just about trying to get more product broadly and randomly applied to every field — it's about integrating plant science, equipment technology, formulation technology and data layers to create better outcomes through a convergence of seemingly unrelated technologies.

Several trends, companies and technologies are converging to show why growth in VAFs will occur and why we should see an increase in ROI and results overtime: advanced crop genetics, predictive analytics, sensors, and more capable application equipment.

Genetic Engineering with VAFs and the Genome

Crop breeding and genetic engineering could enable the development of varieties with unique capabilities to derive more from VAFs, such as altered root architectures, and more efficient nutrient uptake pathways (eg: better foliar uptake), or increased exudate production.

The rationale may seem farfetched, but now that major genetics and trait companies like Corteva are involved in the biostimulant, microbe discovery and nutrition sector, they have increased incentive and capability to tie these segments together.

Consider:

  • Companies developing genotype or variety specific nutrient formulations.

  • This means VAFs could evolve from to be designed to amplify genetic expression, for example.

  • Given the unique ability for VAF products to enhance the varieties and their ability to be distributed through traditional farm channels (eg: Pioneer), it uniquely positions these products to be sold in a more direct tie to the seed, like Corteva has alluded to.

  • New in-plant sensors, like those from InnerPlant (disclosure: Upstream Ag Ventures Inc. is an investor) could be dialled in to signal a specific abiotic stress or nutrient deficiency at some point in the future.

  • ‘Omics’ is becoming more common— Syngenta announced a partnership with TraitSeq specifically to improve understanding of biostimulant product performance in relation to specific crops and genes. There are increasing services from the likes of Foresight Agronomics that can give insights into how a product impacts a specific crop and new technology from the likes of CropDiagnostix that can give more frequent readings into what a plant is experiencing.

  • RNA technology can address abiotic stress by mimicking the plant’s natural biology, using self-replicating RNAs to trigger protective responses like stomatal control, and enhanced root growth without altering the plant’s DNA. With AI-driven design, RNA formulations could in theory be rapidly tailored to specific crops and conditions, enabling better enabling adaptation to abiotic stress. Newly launched company Terrana Bio is an example working on this opportunity.

For the full Upstream Ag Professional breakdown with links to companies and images, check out the link in the heading.

Related:

Key Takeaways

  • AgVend’s new Program Management feature enables ag retailers to create customized loyalty programs, leveraging AI and data to design and optimize programs, helping retailers enhance customer loyalty and increase revenue.

  • By owning a control point AgVend can deploy integrated features like loyalty programs and digital financing solutions, offering a competitive edge and strengthening its position as a trusted partner.

In June, AgVend launched Program Management for Ag Retailers. In the Upstream deep dive coverage of the capability and approach I highlighted the likely points of expansion:

The overview illustrates that there are multiple avenues for AgVend expand program management capabilities:

- downstream to support their retail partners with custom program creation for farmers

- upstream to support manufacturers to collaborate with retails on program management

- upstream to support execution and fulfillment of retailer programs

- upstream to support manufacturers with farmer program tools

The natural focal point is to strengthen the core of any business and AgVend has been diligent at prioritizing their core customer— the retailer. And a retailers biggest opportunity is to strengthen the loyalty of its farmer customers, and increase wallet share/spend.

That logic illustrates that the first extension would come as a Retail Program Creation feature aimed at improving farmer share of wallet and loyalty— directly stepping into the ring with GROWERS to compete.

That aligns with the AgVend announcement on loyalty programs this week:

Underpinned by Foresight, one of AgVend’s proprietary AI models, this Driver guides teams looking to design new programs from scratch or advance existing ones based on previous purchase behavior and real-time demand signals. Retailers can manage rules, balances, and redemptions in their AgVend Team Hub and their customers can track their progress right from their Customer Portal – no new apps, added friction, or manual data entry.

Due to complexity and legacy software systems, it’s challenging for the average retailer to create it’s own loyalty program. Speaking from experience, running multi-business unit and multi-segment incentive programs via Excel is a disaster, leading to gaps in enrolment and lacklustre redemption of rewards.

While retails are local and farmers often value their relationship with retails, retailers experience revenue churn— often a segment (eg: fungicide) is lost to a competitor retail, or sometimes the farmer moves entire crop inputs (eg: all corn purchases) to another retail.

In Evolution of Channel Influence Study 2024 Highlights and Analysis I highlighted survey data from Stratus Ag Research that illustrates farmers are increasingly less likely to deal with only one retailer, and now much more likely to deal with three or more retailers:

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