Upstream Ag
Upstream Ag Insights Podcast
Upstream Ag Professional - February 2nd 2025
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Upstream Ag Professional - February 2nd 2025

Essential news and analysis for agribusiness leaders.

Welcome to the 79th Edition of Upstream Ag Professional!

The audio edition this week includes:

  • John Deere 2024 Annual Report Highlights

  • Innovation Convergence in Bio-Based Inputs

  • AgList for Biologicals

Index

  1. John Deere 2024 Annual Report Highlights and Analysis

  2. 2024 AgTech VC Trends Report

  3. Where Are the Greatest Innovations for the Biologicals Market Coming From?

  4. The Modern Acre podcast team launches AgList: ‘It’s like Yelp for agriculture’

  5. Titan Machinery at the 27th Annual ICR Conference: Transcript Key Takeaways

  6. Ichor Agriculture Announces Matt Crisp as CEO and Suggests New Fungicide Class

  7. ICIG Ventures Invests in Ascribe Bio

  8. GROWERS Revolutionizes Agriculture Loyalty Program Through Use of AI

  9. Non-Ag Article: In Praise of Tacit Knowledge

  10. Other Interesting Ag Articles (6 this week)


1. John Deere 2024 Annual Report Highlights and Analysis - Upstream Ag Professional

Key Takeaways
  • John Deere’s total revenue came in at $51.7 billion, shrinking by ~$10 billion in ‘24 from ‘23, near ‘22 levels.

  • The largest segment of Deere’s business continues to be the large-scale Production and Precision Ag pillar at $20.8 billion or 41% of total rev.

  • The U.S. and Canada account for 66% of total Deere revenue.

  • Agriculture equipment sales are expected to decline globally in 2025 due to weak farm fundamentals, high interest rates, and high used equipment inventory levels. Deere expects a contraction of ag markets globally to result in demand being challenged out to ‘26.

  • Deere anticipates Production & Precision Ag sales to be down ~15% in FY25. U.S. and Canada large ag markets expected to decline ~30%.


The full breakdown includes:

  1. Introduction

  2. Business and Strategy Overview

    1. Smart Industrial Strategy

  3. 2024 Performance

  4. Outlook for 2025

  5. StarLink Partnership Follow Up

  6. Leaps Ambitions Progress

  7. See & Spray Update

  8. John Deere Dealers and Right to Repair

  9. Employees

  10. Inventory

  11. Financial Services

  12. Research and Development

  13. Dealer Incentives

  14. Final Comments

The breakdown has 28 images, including from various John Deere public documents, charts and graphs illustrating trends in Deere KPIs and Upstream specific images such as illustration of Leaps Ambitions progression towards 2026 and 2030 targets.


2. 2024 AgTech VC Trends Report - Pitchbook

Key Takeaways
  • Agtech deal values fell 25.6% YoY, and deal counts declined 24.3%, reflecting a continued slowing in AgTech funding.

  • Q4 24 marked the third consecutive quarter of investment growth.

  • Median investment values increased to $3.6M, reflecting a trend toward later-stage investments. Early-stage funding saw a 33.7% YoY decline.



Agtech deal values fell 25.6% over the previous year while deal counts fell 24.3%, according to the Q4 24 AgTech Report from Pitchbook:

On the positive side, Q4 signalled the third consecutive quarter of investment growth, albeit a small upward trend (top left). The quarter experienced $1.8B of investment across 149 deals, an 8.9% increase from the Q3 24 and an increase over Q4 23 values.

The median investment value reached $3.6M, driven by the investment skewing towards later-stage startups. There was a decline in early-stage investments, such as pre-seed/seed deals, which saw a 33.7% YoY decrease.

Precision agriculture had $2.1B invested across 238 deals in 2024, the most of any segment.

The USA maintained its position as region with the most VC investment.

Exit activity declined in 2024, with 35 exits totalling $1.1B. This decline isn’t exclusive to ag— all industries are challenged with finding exits. We are at a time when IPOs have cooled and M&A has slowed due to increased government scrutiny, and specific to ag, where the largest acquirers have had poorer results and weaker balance sheets.

In the report, Pitchbook suggests a rebound in agtech investment for ‘25, as interest rates come down along with a growing interest in segments like robotics and biologicals.

If we do not see an increase in investment activity, we will see an increase in agtech startups shutting down. It has been ~2 years since the declining investment activity began and many start-ups raise an amount that gives them 18-24 months of runway. Most companies operating in agtech are not “default alive” which means when the funding stops, so does the company.

The industry has experienced large valuation declines and the shut down of companies in areas like vertical farming and insect protein. Given the outlook of the US farm economy, whether specialty crops or row crops, it won’t be a surprise to see more challenged announcements in ‘25.


3. Where Are the Greatest Innovations for the Biologicals Market Coming From? - Agribusiness Global

Key Takeaways
  • Each unique bio innovation benefits other subsegments, creating a positive feedback loop that enhances the viability of bio-based crop inputs.

  • While investment bubbles can lead to excess, they also fund breakthroughs that might not otherwise happen.


The above article shares executive opinions on what segments of the biologicals are driving the greatest innovation.

I believe that positive industry outcomes are driven by the convergence of technologies. That’s why the comment from Mark Trimmer, Managing Partner at DunhamTrimmer, stood out to me the most:

I don’t see innovations coming from any one area, but from multiple areas. We continue to see new products emerging from innovative companies, whether they’re microbials, new methods of developing plant extracts, new manufacturing processes that will reduce cost of goods and give growers access to more products.

I agree with Mark’s view and because innovation is happening concurrently at various segments of the industry, each subsegment benefits as the other progresses, creating greater potential for bio-based crop inputs on farms.

While the image below shows a high level value chain, the convergence of innovation doesn’t stop there— it extends to tech enabling deeper understanding of plant physiology and gene editing of plants, potentially finding ways for crops to better benefit from products like biostimulants.

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